We had that spoof drop to 156.75 yesterday that turned out to possibly have been a “BOJ checking rate” moment or just a panic move expecting them to be in but they were not…. the BOJ has not sold 1 USD yesterday that was all just a panic….
USDJPY remained nervous most of the day before starting to grind higher with Oil rallying and the US data… but it has been mainly Oil… the 157.90 is a real key level for me.. I know we could define others but that has been a level I watched already back in 2024 and 2025 where there have been moments of clear activities that felt like hidden interventions and gut feel would still tell me that if possible, they will try and keep the USDJPY below 158.00…
The Bessent event in Japan was disappointing . Mrs Katayama made some comments that Bessent stressed the FX cooperation more than usual but at the same time said the meeting was a lot more relaxed (so I wonder how the last went, given it is known that Bessent has a bit of a temper)….. anyway…
USDJPY will turn lower if a) Oil tops and comes off b) the Broad USD turns lower… or c) Interventions…. And right now.. the timing feels not there…. BUT I would hope that they operate by Stealth up here not to let USDJPY get back up…. Otherwise it be again a discussion about defending the 160.00 level (which they will)
Range to start the day… 157.25 mid 4h BB vs 157.90
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