I still suggest that the MOF/BOJ have to try and get a daily close below 156.00, the lower end of the Cloud… the top of the cloud is now 157.83… you do not want that to break again on a daily close… so we are trading in the middle of the cloud and I think there are 2 levels Key now for the MOF/BOJ… the 156.00 Cloud level and 155.50 the lows so far in the intervention…. last night we saw a low of 155.67…. and Mrs K declined to comment on FX Intervention, it would be a first in Asian hours for quite some time… and the price action does look very clear that the BOJ was involved.
Looking at the Candles since Thursday so far… we see a lot of tails.. so more work needed by the MOF/BOJ and I have no doubt that they will put in the needed work. Against all odds and market comments at times about the BOJ…. I have been watching them for 4 Decades…. and whether you like it or not… when they show up.. they are successful…. Buy Low…. Sell High… for how long… that might at times be the question but this time…. if at the same time the War in the Gulf could settle.. when the broader USD may turn back down as well as possibly the Japanese Lifers and Pension funds finally start buying JGBs instead of selling.. we still have to think that over the next few years… with Japanese long yields now at levels at or near global yields…. the repatriation train will start…. but that is for another day. I feel the MOF will not let the USDJPY bounce back up and will cap moves on the top and will periodically step in to get us below the key levels needed… if there is one Ministry of Finance and Central Bank is watching charts… it is the MOF and the BOJ.. so they know fair well what needs to be done.
Key levels 155.50 and 156.00 vs 157.65 and 157.85…. Ideally not back above 158.50 as that could not fully be ruled out but we should soon be at 150.00-152.00
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